UPDATE: Burke holds 49-47% lead among likely voters in new MU La - WKOW 27: Madison, WI Breaking News, Weather and Sports

UPDATE: Burke holds 49-47% lead among likely voters in new MU Law poll

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MILWAUKEE (WKOW) -- Democratic challenger Mary Burke has her biggest lead to date over Gov. Scott Walker (R) among likely voters in the latest Marquette University Law School political poll conducted over the past weekend.

Burke leads Walker 49-47 percent among 609 likely voters, while Walker holds a 48-44 percent lead among all 815 registered voters polled.

Burke trailed Gov. Walker 48-45 percent among likely voters in the May MU Law poll, but then pulled ahead by one point, 47-46 percent in July, and is now ahead by two points.

This new terrain for Democrats.  In the 2010 election and the 2012 recall election, Tom Barrett never led Walker among likely voters in any Marquette poll.

Burke's momentum could be coming from her campaign's decision to pound home the same message over and over again:  Wisconsin is dead last in the Midwest in job creation.

Based on some numbers in the new poll, voters seem to be receiving the message loud and clear.    

In the July MU Law Poll, respondents were split (43-43%) on whether Wisconsin was lagging behind other states in job creation or was at about the same level as other states.

But in this most recent poll, 48 percent said Wisconsin is lagging behind to just 34 percent who think we are about the same.

"People are concerned that our economy is lagging," Burke said in Milwaukee on Wednesday.  "We need to be creating more good paying jobs and so I think the poll reflects that and as people get to know me, my numbers are getting better."

But Walker said his message on jobs is just starting to get out.

"Be mindful of the fact that this poll was concluded before our recent ads came out that completely debunk the myth about our ranking in the Midwest that both Mary Burke and her allies outside of the state and others in the state are pushing," Gov. Walker told reporters.

In new ads, the Governor cites U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs numbers from July 2013 to June 2014 that show Wisconsin ranks 3rd in the Midwest.  Those are the same monthly numbers Gov. Walker called "inaccurate" during the 2012 recall campaign, because they only come from a 3.5% sample of state employers.  The Walker campaign started emphasizing employment numbers from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages in May of 2012 and cited those numbers until this recent ad campaign. 

Burke is using the latest QCEW numbers available, which show Wisconsin ranks 10th out of 10 states in the Midwest.  New QCEW numbers will be released by BLS next month, but this is the first time in over two years the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development (DWD) has not put out Wisconsin's QCEW numbers at least one month before BLS.  DWD officials say they will still release the newest QCEW numbers before the BLS does, but have not given a date. 

Prior to this latest campaign ad push, the Walker campaign has tried to go after Burke on a number of different fronts, including how she's made millions of dollars from Trek Bicycle by helping them outsource jobs to China when she worked there.

But only 10 percent of those polled by MU Law have an unfavorable opinion of Trek, with 35 percent saying they like the company.  43 percent of respondents said they hadn't heard enough about Trek to have an opinion.

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MILWAUKEE (WKOW) -- Democratic challenger Mary Burke has her biggest lead to date over Gov. Scott Walker (R) among likely voters in the latest Marquette University Law School political poll conducted over the past weekend.

Burke leads Walker 49-47 percent among 609 likely voters, while Walker holds a 48-44 percent lead among all 815 registered voters polled.

Burke trailed Gov. Walker 48-45 percent among likely voters in the May MU Law poll, but then pulled ahead by one point 47-46 percent in July and is now ahead by two points.

In the first poll out in the race for the Attorney General, Jefferson County District Attorney Susan Happ (D) leads Waukesha County DA Brad Schimel 42-32 percent among likely voters, but 23 percent say they are still undecided.

Capitol Bureau Chief will have more on the latest Marquette Law School Poll on 27 News at 5 and 6.



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